Elections have consequences.
My governor said so on Wednesday. Standing in Tallahassee, Ron DeSantis called Tuesday’s results “close to an extinction-level event for Republicans” (via The Hill). Florida held for his party at the top of the ticket. Down the ballot, Democrats flipped 17 legislative seats.
He described the damage well. He’s wrong about who did it. So is anyone in Washington taking a victory lap.
The scoreboard
As of Thursday morning, Democrats hold at least 54 Senate seats. They flipped seven held by Republicans: Texas, Kansas, Ohio, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina and South Carolina. They lost none of their own (NBC Senate results).
Mississippi and Alaska are still counting. In Mississippi, Scott Colom leads Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith by about a thousand votes (CBS live updates).
In the House, CBS projects Democrats will land between 251 and 268 seats. Their national House margin is the widest midterm win since the Watergate era.
Kansas elected its first Democratic senator since 1932. Texas elected its first since 1988.
The new Congress is sworn in January 3. Until then, the lame duck belongs to the GOP.
Why Republicans lost
Voters told pollsters plainly. In the NBC News exit poll, 75% rated the economy poor and 65% said Trump’s policies made it worse. Nearly two in three blamed his policies for higher prices. His approval among voters stood at 38%.
Corruption mattered too. More than half of voters in the AP Voter Poll called it crucial to their vote, slightly more than said so about the cost of living.
The fear campaign on immigration ran out of road. Fifty-seven percent said enforcement had gone too far, and only 14% named immigration their top issue. Republicans kept a narrow edge on how to handle it. Grocery prices outweighed it.
Yes, Republicans helped
In Kansas, pastor Adam Hamilton beat Sen. Roger Marshall with about 1 in 10 Trump voters on his side, per the NBC News exit poll. Trump won Kansas by 16 points in 2024. A 10% defection erases most of that cushion.
In Ohio, Sherrod Brown drew 7% to 10% of Republicans, depending on the poll. In Iowa, about 1 in 10 Trump voters crossed over for Josh Turek, according to ABC News.
South Carolina split its ticket. Voters elected Republican Alan Wilson governor and Democrat Annie Andrews to the Senate. Wilson ran about 99,000 votes ahead of the GOP Senate nominee (WRDW split-ticket analysis).
Republicans noticed. Former RNC chair Ronna McDaniel called it a “red rebellion” (CBS live updates). JD Vance conceded that many of his and Trump’s 2024 voters chose Democrats this time.
The national picture is smaller. More than nine in ten Republicans stuck with their party. The crossover voters decided red-state Senate races. The wave needed everyone else.
Every one of those crossover voters is a neighbor who put country before party.
A coalition of coalitions
The rest of the wave came from us.
About 7 in 10 voters under 30 backed Democrats for the House (AP via WTTW). In 2024 they split close to even. Latino voters went 62% Democratic, up from 51% for Harris. Independents broke 56% to 39% (ABC News analysis) after splitting evenly the last two cycles.
Then look at who we elected (Fast Company’s list):
Keisha Lance Bottoms, the first Black woman elected governor in American history
Juliana Stratton, whose win puts three Black women in the Senate at once for the first time (per Axios)
Deb Haaland, the first Native American woman elected governor
Peggy Flanagan, the first Native American woman in the Senate
Chris Pappas, the first openly gay man elected to the Senate
Abdul El-Sayed, the first Muslim senator
James Talarico, a seminarian, and Adam Hamilton, a pastor, who carried their faith into red states and won
Love won. Love trumped hate.
Dear DNC
None of this makes the party popular. In the NBC News exit polls, 53% of voters viewed Democrats unfavorably. About two in ten Democratic voters dislike their own party.
Party leaders in Washington didn’t always back the candidates we chose. In Maine, Chuck Schumer and the DSCC backed Janet Mills over labor’s objections. Primary voters rejected her by more than 50 points. Their pick, Graham Platner, later withdrew, and his replacement, Troy Jackson, beat Susan Collins.
In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed won his primary by a point. The congresswoman he beat, Haley Stevens, endorsed the Republican. El-Sayed won by seven.
We built this.
The math is tight. Even at 56 seats, Senate Democrats can’t break a filibuster or override a veto. Moving quickly will take a discipline this party hasn’t shown.
2028 is coming
DeSantis also said Democrats didn’t earn a mandate. On that much, we agree.
They earned a directive. Reverse the Medicaid cuts. Restore the ACA tax credits. Bring down prices. Use the subpoena power we just handed them, in public. Prove that the hard stuff, the stuff once called impossible, can be done, and that country comes before party.
We ain’t gonna forget nothin’.
Be kind, feed your mind, and hold them all accountable.
Editor’s note: Exit poll figures come from one shared survey used by several networks. They are preliminary and will be reweighted as final counts come in. Seat counts are as of Thursday, Nov. 5.
Slade Wentworth | The Dad Briefs covers the civic, political, and quietly human stories that shape family life in America, with recipes along the way.
Thank you for this. I am dubious Dems (big D) will actually shake things up. I would LOVE to be proven wrong.
I also take what people say in exit polls with a huge grain of salt. Maybe a gallon, you know the gallon of gas container size, right?
"Corruption mattered too. More than half of voters in the AP Voter Poll called it crucial to their vote." Yes, and.
We should be a party who openly challenges the status quo and corruption.
But anyone who claims surprise at the epic level of corruption is lying, stupid or both. Sorry to be harsh but the man was a convicted felon who mocked someone with a disability ON AIR/
At EVERY TURN he showed us exactly who he is. So I don't believe for a second the "good people" who claim surprise at corruption. He is who he said he is. At every turn. Every rally. Every action.
Btw the press is harping on Musks lost money. In real terms, it's like if 99% of us lost a couple of hundred dollars. Not fun, but we need to focus on facts not distractions. How much money SHOULD he be paying in taxes? Not what he threw to the GOP. Again, we need to demand better analysis and focus on what matters not what grabs clicks.